Lexington SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC
Lexington SC scored under 1.5 in 2 of 5 at home · El Paso Locomotive FC conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · Lexington SC: only games against sides at El Paso Locomotive FC's level · El Paso Locomotive FC: only games against sides at Lexington SC's level
Match details. USL Championship. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time.
Form. Lexington SC have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. El Paso Locomotive FC have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W.
The numbers. Lexington SC score 2.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Lexington SC average 5.3 corners and 1.9 cards a game. El Paso Locomotive FC score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. El Paso Locomotive FC average 4.2 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 28% against the records' 53%.
The read. No firm call: El Paso Locomotive FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. El Paso Locomotive FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour El Paso Locomotive FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 70% on the records (Lexington SC: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; El Paso Locomotive FC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Lexington SC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lexington SC 2-1 El Paso Locomotive FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).