INTERNATIONAL - AFRICA CUP OF NATIONS QUALIFICATION

BURBDI

14:00Tue 29 Sep

ALG

ALG

Burundi vs Algeria

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 14:00 Lagos time.

Form. Burundi have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. Algeria have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. In this competition Algeria have gone W.

The numbers. Burundi score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and seven games without a goal. Burundi average 5.3 shots (1.4 on target), 2.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Algeria score 1.7 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Algeria average 11.8 shots (4.0 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.

The read. Algeria to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Algeria the likelier winners; Algeria are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Algeria. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Algeria or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Algeria to Win (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Burundi 0-1 Algeria (16% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Algeria win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.09

BDI 7 of 10 (70%) · ALG 7 of 10 (70%)84.5%

Algeria: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

Algeria to Win Either Half: YesPAGE ONLY

1.17

BDI 6 of 10 (60%) · ALG 7 of 10 (70%)75.6%

Algeria: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

1st Half Result or Match Result: AlgeriaPAGE ONLY

1.17

BDI 6 of 10 (60%) · ALG 7 of 10 (70%)75.6%

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

BDI 9 of 10 (90%) · ALG 9 of 10 (90%)94.1%

Burundi: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Algeria: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · each game weighed by who it was against

BURUNDI GOALS

Burundi Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.09

BDI 7 of 10 (70%) · ALG 6 of 10 (60%)75.3%

Burundi scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Algeria conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against

ALGERIA GOALS

Algeria Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.09

BDI 7 of 10 (70%) · ALG 7 of 10 (70%)84.5%

Algeria scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Burundi conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Algeria or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Algeria to Win (the numbers (55%) and the records (76%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the numbers (62%) and the records (89%) are 27 points apart, and nothing settles it); Algeria or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 16.1%

Burundi goals →

Algeria goals ↓

0-012%

1-07%

2-03%

3-00.6%

4-00.1%

5-00.0%

0-116%

1-112%

2-14%

3-10.9%

4-10.2%

5-10.0%

0-212%

1-29%

2-23%

3-20.7%

4-20.1%

5-20.0%

0-36%

1-34%

2-31%

3-30.3%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-42%

1-42%

2-40.5%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.7%

1-50.5%

2-50.2%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

BURUNDILLWLLLLWWL0.90 PPG

ALGERIAWWWWLLWDLW1.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BURUNDI HOMExALGERIA AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.701.00CONCEDED A GAME1.3030%CLEAN SHEETS30%2.38CORNERS A GAME3.621.38CARDS A GAME1.38

TRENDS

Burundi have scored in 30% of their games.

Algeria have scored in 60% of their games.

Burundi kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Algeria kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards