Botswana vs Tunisia
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. Botswana have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D, and in this competition they've gone D. Tunisia have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D, and in this competition they've gone D.
The numbers. Botswana score 0.8 and concede two a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and six games without a goal. They average 5.7 shots (1.7 on target), 1.7 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 41% of the ball. Tunisia score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. They average 8.4 shots (2.9 on target), 4.4 corners and 0.6 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Botswana have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 7 Sep 2023, it finished Botswana 0-3 Tunisia.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 46%.
The read. No firm call: Tunisia are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Tunisia the likelier winners; Tunisia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tunisia. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.29, 88% on the records (Botswana: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10; Tunisia: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Botswana 1-2 Tunisia (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).