Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at National Sports Stadium, Harare.
Form. Zimbabwe have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L L. In this competition Zimbabwe have gone W. Congo DR have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D. In this competition Congo DR have gone W.
The numbers. Zimbabwe score one and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Zimbabwe average 11.4 shots (3.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 36% of the ball. Congo DR score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Congo DR average 14.2 shots (3.3 on target), 3.3 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Zimbabwe have won one, drawn one and lost one. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 30 Jun 2019, it finished Zimbabwe 0-4 Congo DR: Zimbabwe had 15 shots to 15, 59% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%; two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Zimbabwe's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Congo DR to win. Congo DR are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Congo DR.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Congo DR at 1.19, 76% on the records (Congo DR unbeaten in 4 of 6 away; Zimbabwe failed to win 8 of 10). The safer one: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.18 (84%). Full cover: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.10. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Congo DR or draw and under 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Zimbabwe 0-1 Congo DR (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).