Match details. Eerste Divisie. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time.
Form. Vitesse Arnhem have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. NAC Breda have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L D.
The numbers. Vitesse Arnhem score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Vitesse Arnhem average 13.5 shots (3.9 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.1 cards a game. NAC Breda score 2.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. NAC Breda average 17.1 shots (6.6 on target), 7.4 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 90% on the records (Vitesse Arnhem: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; NAC Breda: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 8). Backup: NAC Breda Over 0.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Vitesse Arnhem or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); NAC Breda or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Vitesse Arnhem 1-2 NAC Breda (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).