Match details. National League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Victoria Park, Hartlepool.
What's at stake. Hartlepool United are 22nd on 9 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Scunthorpe, 2 points clear of Solihull Moors. A win would take them above Scunthorpe. Tamworth FC are 20th on 11 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Boston United, 1 point clear of Scunthorpe. A win would take them above Boston United.
Form. Hartlepool United have won one, drawn none and lost nine of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Tamworth FC have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L.
The numbers. Hartlepool United score 0.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Hartlepool United average 4.4 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Tamworth FC score 1.2 and concede 3.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Tamworth FC average 5.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Hartlepool United have won one, drawn three and lost none. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 7 Feb 2026, it finished Hartlepool United 1-1 Tamworth FC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Hartlepool United the likelier winners, but Tamworth FC are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Tamworth FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Tamworth FC (Draw No Bet) (no result call); Tamworth FC Over 0.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Hartlepool United 1-1 Tamworth FC (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).