Barrow AFC vs Wealdstone FC
Match details. National League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Holker Street, Barrow in Furness.
What's at stake. Barrow AFC are 12th on 15 points after 11 games, 2 points behind Sutton Utd, level on points with Forest Green. A win would take them above Sutton Utd. Wealdstone FC are 17th on 12 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Carlisle, level on points with Woking. A win would take them above Carlisle.
Form. Barrow AFC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L D. In this competition Barrow AFC have gone W W W L D W. Wealdstone FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W. In this competition Wealdstone FC have gone D W L L W L.
The numbers. Barrow AFC score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Barrow AFC average 6.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Wealdstone FC score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Wealdstone FC average 3.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 14 Jan 2012, it finished Barrow AFC 1-2 Wealdstone FC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The case against. Wealdstone FC's record still gives them 37% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Barrow AFC to win. A draw is live. An open game. Barrow AFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Barrow AFC. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Barrow AFC or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); 1X2 - 2UP: Barrow AFC (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Barrow AFC 2-1 Wealdstone FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).