Match details. Southern League Premier South, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Hanworth Villa are 3rd on 16 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Uxbridge, 2 points clear of Chertsey Town. A win would take them above Uxbridge. Chichester City FC are 7th on 13 points after 8 games, level on points with Frome Town, level on points with Berkhamsted. A win would take them above Frome Town.
Form. Hanworth Villa have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. Chichester City FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L W.
The numbers. Hanworth Villa score 3.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Hanworth Villa average 5.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Chichester City FC score 1.5 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Chichester City FC average 4.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Chichester City FC's record still gives them 43% to win.
The read. Hanworth Villa to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Hanworth Villa the likelier winners; Hanworth Villa are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 71% on the records (Hanworth Villa: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 7; Chichester City FC: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7). Leave: Hanworth Villa or Both Teams Score (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Hanworth Villa Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Hanworth Villa 2-1 Chichester City FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).