Chippenham Town scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Evesham United conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 51% · Chippenham Town: only games against sides at Evesham United's level · Evesham United: only games against sides at Chippenham Town's level
Match details. Southern League Premier South, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Evesham United are 13th on 10 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Yate Town, level on points with Bracknell Town. A win would take them above Yate Town. Chippenham Town are 18th on 7 points after 7 games, level on points with Sholing, 1 point clear of Hanwell Town. A win would take them above Sholing.
Form. Evesham United have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W. Chippenham Town have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D L W.
The numbers. Evesham United score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Chippenham Town score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Chippenham Town average 6.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Chippenham Town's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Evesham United to win. An open game. Evesham United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Evesham United. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 83%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, 93% on the records (Evesham United: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7; Chippenham Town: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5). Leave: Evesham United or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Evesham United Over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Evesham United 2-1 Chippenham Town (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).