RAROC

15:00Sat 3 Oct

SWI

Rochdale AFC vs Swindon Town

CLASS E

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THE BETLIVELY · NOT IN CODES

TOTAL GOALS

Class E

RAv

Under 3.5 Goals

Rochdale AFC v Swindon Town

England - League Two · 15:00

1.39odds

72%book

0edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Spotland, Rochdale.

What's at stake. Rochdale AFC are 16th on 10 points after 8 games, level on points with Colchester, 1 point clear of Newport County. A win would take them above Colchester. Swindon Town are 12th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Chesterfield, 1 point clear of Rotherham. A win would take them above Chesterfield.

Form. Rochdale AFC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D L. Swindon Town have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L.

The numbers. Rochdale AFC score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Rochdale AFC average 5.2 shots (2.1 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Swindon Town score one and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Swindon Town average 6.0 shots (2.6 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Rochdale AFC have won two, drawn four and lost four. Nine of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, three were drawn and Swindon Town won one. The last time they met, on 18 Mar 2023, it finished Rochdale AFC 4-4 Swindon Town: Rochdale AFC had 18 shots to 16, 48% of the ball, three yellow cards.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%. Not everything agrees on goals: nine of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.39, 69% on the records (Rochdale AFC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8; Swindon Town: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Rochdale AFC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Swindon Town or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Rochdale AFC 1-1 Swindon Town (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES

1.14

ROC 7 of 8 (88%) · SWI 8 of 8 (100%)89.3%

Rochdale AFC: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Swindon Town: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · H2H 5 of 6 · Rochdale AFC: only games against sides at Swindon Town's level · Swindon Town: only games against sides at Rochdale AFC's level

Under 3.5 GoalsMAINPAGE ONLY

1.39

ROC 7 of 8 (88%) · SWI 5 of 8 (62%)71.9%

Rochdale AFC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Swindon Town: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 3 of 6 · Rochdale AFC: only games against sides at Swindon Town's level · Swindon Town: only games against sides at Rochdale AFC's level

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

ROC 6 of 8 (75%) · SWI 6 of 8 (75%)77.1%

Rochdale AFC: the bet landed in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Swindon Town: the bet landed in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Rochdale AFC: only games against sides at Swindon Town's level · Swindon Town: only games against sides at Rochdale AFC's level

Left off the list: Rochdale AFC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Swindon Town or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 11.3%

Rochdale AFC goals →

Swindon Town goals ↓

0-05%

1-08%

2-07%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-15%

1-111%

2-19%

3-16%

4-12%

5-10.9%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.6%

0-32%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.2%

0-40.6%

1-41.0%

2-40.9%

3-40.5%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

ROCHDALE AFCLLLLWLDWDW1.10 PPG

SWINDON TOWNDWLWWLLLLD1.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ROCHDALE AFC HOMExSWINDON TOWN AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME1.001.60CONCEDED A GAME1.6030%CLEAN SHEETS10%38%FAILED TO SCORE50%3.20CORNERS A GAME3.672.30CARDS A GAME1.780.87xG1.182.15xG AGAINST1.99

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.25POINTS A GAME1.38-0.25GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.38-3.3SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.82.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.48LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

69%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

ROCHDALE AFC OR DRAW

82%

OKAY · 80/85

SWINDON TOWN OR DRAW

38%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ROCHDALE AFCxSWINDON TOWN

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME1.401.00CONCEDED A GAME1.602.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE60%2.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.48.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES12.2

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

ROCHDALE AFC 2 · 20%DRAW 4SWINDON TOWN 4 · 40%

6 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

9 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

9 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

5 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2015-12-12Rochdale AFC 1 – 2 Swindon Town

2016-04-30Rochdale AFC 2 – 2 Swindon Town

2016-10-18Rochdale AFC 0 – 3 Swindon Town

2016-11-19Rochdale AFC 4 – 0 Swindon Town

2020-09-12Rochdale AFC 1 – 3 Swindon Town

2021-04-13Rochdale AFC 2 – 1 Swindon Town

2021-10-16Rochdale AFC 2 – 2 Swindon Town

2022-04-02Rochdale AFC 0 – 0 Swindon Town

TRENDS

Rochdale AFC have scored in 60% of their games.

Swindon Town have scored in 50% of their games.

Rochdale AFC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Swindon Town kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards