INTERNATIONAL - AFRICA CUP OF NATIONS QUALIFICATION

GHAGHA

17:00Tue 29 Sep

GAM

GAM

Ghana vs Gambia

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. This is an Africa Cup of Nations Qualification Group Stage 2 match. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time at Accra Sports Stadium.

Form. Ghana have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game, with a recent run L L L D W and a loss in this competition. Gambia have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game, their last five W W L W W and a win in this competition.

The numbers. Ghana score 1.3 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 7.0 shots (1.2 on target), 1.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game and hold 37% of the ball. Gambia score two and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. They average 11.8 shots (7.3 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 67% against the records' 46%.

The read. No firm call: Ghana are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Ghana are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ghana. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Ghana or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Ghana or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ghana 1-0 Gambia (16% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Ghana or DrawIN CODES

1.12

GHA 7 of 10 (70%) · GAM 6 of 10 (60%)86.2%

Ghana unbeaten in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Gambia failed to win 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

GHA 9 of 10 (90%) · GAM 7 of 10 (70%)92.4%

Ghana: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Gambia: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against

GAMBIA GOALS

Gambia Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.15

GHA 4 of 10 (40%) · GAM 8 of 10 (80%)80%

Gambia scored under 1.5 in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Ghana conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Ghana or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Ghana or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 16.2%

Ghana goals →

Gambia goals ↓

0-016%

1-016%

2-09%

3-04%

4-01.0%

5-00.2%

0-111%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-24%

1-25%

2-23%

3-21%

4-20.3%

5-20.1%

0-31%

1-31%

2-30.7%

3-30.3%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-40.2%

1-40.2%

2-40.1%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

GHANAWDWWWWDLLL1.70 PPG

GAMBIADDLDLWWLWW1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

GHANA HOMExGAMBIA AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME2.000.60CONCEDED A GAME1.3060%CLEAN SHEETS40%1.80CORNERS A GAME3.781.50CARDS A GAME1.78

TRENDS

Ghana have scored in 70% of their games.

Gambia have scored in 90% of their games.

Ghana kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

Gambia kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards