South Sudan vs Egypt
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Juba Stadium.
Form. South Sudan have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L D. Egypt have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W D. In this competition Egypt have gone D.
The numbers. South Sudan score 0.7 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and six games without a goal. South Sudan average 4.4 shots (1.7 on target), 2.4 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Egypt score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Egypt average 10.2 shots (3.0 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 84% against the records' 55%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The read. No firm call: Egypt are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Egypt the likelier winners; Egypt are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Egypt.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Over 1.5 Cards (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: South Sudan 0-2 Egypt (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).