Ethiopia vs Senegal
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Ethiopia have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. Senegal have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W. In this competition Senegal have gone D.
The numbers. Ethiopia score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Ethiopia average 7.4 shots (3.4 on target), 2.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Senegal score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Senegal average 14.9 shots (6.2 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%.
The case against. Ethiopia's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. Senegal to win. Their goals for and against make Senegal the likelier winners; Senegal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Senegal.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Senegal Over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).