Troyes vs Marseille
Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time at Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Referee is Guillaume Paradis.
What's at stake. Troyes sit 16th on 4 points after 5 games, two points behind Auxerre and one point clear of Marseille. A win would lift them above Auxerre. Marseille are 17th on 3 points after 5 games, one point behind Estac Troyes and one point clear of Le Havre. A win would move them above Estac Troyes.
Team news. Troyes are missing I. Boura (hip), Y. Kone (injury), A. Ouzenadji (injury) and Y. Titi (leg). A. Ouzenadji is their main creator. Marseille are without D. Cornelius (hip), P. Hojbjerg (muscle), T. Weah (red card) and G. Kondogbia (thigh). T. Weah is their centre-back.
Form. Troyes have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five read L L L W D. Marseille have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five read L L L L L.
The numbers. Troyes score 1.3 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. They average 11.9 shots (4.4 on target), 6.6 corners, 1.6 cards and 39% possession. Marseille score 0.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. They average 12.7 shots (4.8 on target), 4.5 corners, 2.3 cards and 56% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Troyes have won one, drawn two and lost seven. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four meetings one was drawn and Marseille won three. The last meeting on 16 Apr 2023 finished Troyes 1-3 Marseille; Troyes had 4 shots to 28, 28% possession and two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Troyes are the form side, but the meetings favour Marseille. In the last ten meetings Troyes won one, Marseille won seven and two were drawn.
The read. No side to back. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Troyes 1-1 Marseille (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).