Cagliari vs Juventus
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. The game is at Unipol Domus, Cagliari. Matteo Marcenaro will referee.
What's at stake. Cagliari sit fourth on 12 points after five games, one point behind Lazio and one clear of AC Milan. A win would lift them above Lazio. Juventus are eighth on 10 points, level with Napoli and Frosinone. A win would move them above Napoli.
Team news. Cagliari are without M. Felici (knee injury), R. Idrissi (knee injury) and Y. Trepy (injury). Juventus miss J. Boga (muscle injury), J. Ekhator (muscle injury), K. Grabara (knee injury), M. Locatelli (knee injury), A. Milik (inactive) and K. Thuram (knee injury).
Form. Cagliari have seven wins, no draws and three losses in their last ten, averaging 2.1 points a game. Their last five results are W W W L L. Juventus have five wins, three draws and two defeats in their last ten, averaging 1.8 points a game. Their recent form reads W W L D W.
The numbers. At home in the last six, Cagliari score 0.8 and concede one a game, keeping two clean sheets and suffering two goalless games. They average 14.0 shots (5.0 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game with 41% possession. Juventus score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game over ten, with five clean sheets. They average 16.7 shots (6.0 on target), 7.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game with 56% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Cagliari have one win, two draws and seven defeats. Six of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in six. In the last four encounters Juventus have three wins to Cagliari's one. The most recent clash on 17 Jan 2026 ended Cagliari 1-0 Juventus, with Cagliari managing three shots to Juventus' 21, 22% possession and one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board makes it 63% against the records' 38%. On goals their figures point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Juventus are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Juventus the likelier winners; the meetings favour Juventus, point to a tight game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.33, 74% on the records (Cagliari: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 8; Juventus: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 9). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Cagliari 1-1 Juventus (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).