Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. The referee is Francesco Fourneau.
What's at stake. Sassuolo are 10th on 7 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Frosinone, 1 point clear of Atalanta. A win would take them level on points with Frosinone. AC Milan are 5th on 11 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Cagliari, level on points with Como. A win would take them above Cagliari.
Team news. Sassuolo are without D. Boloca (muscle injury), J. Idzes (muscle injury), I. Kone (broken leg), Y. Paz (knee injury), E. Pieragnolo (knee injury), C. Volpato (thigh injury). S. Cinquegrano is their centre-back. Sassuolo's line-up is confirmed. AC Milan are without A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury), A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury). K. De Winter is their centre-back. AC Milan's line-up is confirmed.
Form. Sassuolo have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D W. AC Milan have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W.
The numbers. Sassuolo score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Sassuolo average 14.2 shots (5.9 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. AC Milan score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. AC Milan average 11.4 shots (3.9 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Sassuolo have won four, drawn three and lost three. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Sassuolo won one, two were drawn and AC Milan won one. The last time they met, on 3 May 2026, it finished Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan: Sassuolo had 13 shots to 7, 58% of the ball, eight yellow cards.
The case against. AC Milan without K. De Winter (centre-back). Sassuolo's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. AC Milan or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. AC Milan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Milan. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 77% on the records (Sassuolo: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8; AC Milan: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Sassuolo Under 1.5 goals (Sassuolo's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sassuolo 1-2 AC Milan (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).