Freiburg vs Schalke
Match details. Bundesliga, round 5. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 Lagos time. The game is at Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.
What's at stake. Freiburg sit third on 10 points after four games, level with Bayern München and three points clear of Augsburg. A win would push them above Bayern. Schalke sit 11th on 5 points, level with Eintracht Frankfurt and one point clear of SC Paderborn 07. A win would lift them above Eintracht Frankfurt.
Form. Freiburg have seven wins, one draw and two losses in their last ten, averaging 2.2 points a game. Their last five results are D W W W W. Schalke have five wins, three draws and two defeats in their last ten, averaging 1.8 points a game. Their last five are D W D L D.
The numbers. At home Freiburg score 3.4 and concede 1.2 per game in their last five, keeping one clean sheet. They average 14.1 shots (7.0 on target), 5.2 corners, 1.2 cards and 53% possession. Away Schalke score 1.6 and concede 2.2 in their last five, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal, averaging 12.0 shots (5.1 on target), 3.0 corners, 1.5 cards and 36% possession.
Head to head. In their last ten meetings Freiburg have six wins, two draws and two losses. Four of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in one. Freiburg have won the last four meetings. The most recent clash on 23 Apr 2023 ended 4-0 to Freiburg, with 26 shots to 9, 45% possession and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Both sides show an open game on paper, with goals for and against suggesting plenty of chances. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%, though six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Schalke's record still only gives them a 22% chance to win. Not everything agrees on goals, as six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Freiburg to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Freiburg the likelier winners; they are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records and the meetings also favour Freiburg. Their goals for and against point to an open game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.19, 79% on the records (Freiburg: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6; Schalke: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Freiburg or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.24. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Freiburg 2-1 Schalke (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).