Aalesunds FK vs Sarpsborg 08
Match details. Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Color Line Stadion, Ålesund. The referee is Svein Tore Sinnes.
What's at stake. Aalesunds FK are 14th on 21 points after 21 games, 2 points behind Ham-Kam, 2 points clear of Kristiansund BK. A win would take them above Ham-Kam. Sarpsborg 08 are 9th on 25 points after 21 games, 3 points behind Fredrikstad, level on points with KFUM Oslo. A win would take them level on points with Fredrikstad.
Team news. Aalesunds FK are without M. Andresen (yellow cards), I. Djantou (inactive), H. Hammer (injury), S. Haram (elbow injury), A. Kjelsen (injury), P. Ngongo (surgery). Sarpsborg 08 are without F. Carstensen (injury), M. Opoku (ankle injury), F. Carstensen (injury), M. Opoku (ankle injury).
Form. Aalesunds FK have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D. In this competition Aalesunds FK have gone W L W L D D. Sarpsborg 08 have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D L. In this competition Sarpsborg 08 have gone L D D D L L.
The numbers. Aalesunds FK score 2.4 and concede 2.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Aalesunds FK average 17.5 shots (5.6 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Sarpsborg 08 score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sarpsborg 08 average 14.8 shots (4.6 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Aalesunds FK have won two, drawn one and lost seven. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Aalesunds FK won two and Sarpsborg 08 won two. The last time they met, on 22 Oct 2023, it finished Aalesunds FK 3-2 Sarpsborg 08: Aalesunds FK had 14 shots to 20, 38% of the ball, one yellow card.
The case against. Aalesunds FK's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Sarpsborg 08 to win. An open game. Sarpsborg 08 are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Sarpsborg 08. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 77% on the records (Aalesunds FK: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Sarpsborg 08: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Sarpsborg 08 win or both teams score at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Aalesunds FK 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).