Lecce vs Bologna
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. The referee is Luca J. Pairetto.
What's at stake. Lecce are 12th on 6 points after 5 games, level on points with Atalanta, 2 points clear of Udinese. A win would take them above Atalanta. Bologna are 19th on 2 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Fiorentina, 2 points clear of Venezia. A win would take them above Fiorentina.
Team news. Lecce are without M. Berisha (lacking match fitness), N. Stulic (muscle injury), M. Berisha (lacking match fitness), N. Stulic (muscle injury). Bologna are without E. Holm (thigh injury), S. Mbangula (injury), J. Odgaard (thigh injury), E. Holm (thigh injury), S. Mbangula (injury), J. Odgaard (thigh injury).
Form. Lecce have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. Bologna have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L.
The numbers. Lecce score 1.1 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. Lecce average 8.8 shots (3.6 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 39% of the ball. Bologna score one and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. Bologna average 11.4 shots (3.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Lecce have won none, drawn three and lost seven. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, two were drawn and Bologna won two. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2026, it finished Lecce 0-2 Bologna: Lecce had 6 shots to 12, 36% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Bologna the likelier winners, but Lecce are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Bologna.
The case against. Lecce's record still gives them 36% to win.
The read. Bologna or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Bologna the likelier winners; Lecce are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Bologna. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.29, 74% on the records (Lecce: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 9; Bologna: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Bologna Over 0.5 goals (Bologna's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Lecce 1-1 Bologna (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).