Lazio vs Monza
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. The referee is Guiseppe Collu.
What's at stake. Lazio are 3rd on 13 points after 5 games, level on points with AS Roma, 1 point clear of Cagliari. A win would take them above AS Roma. Monza are 15th on 4 points after 5 games, level on points with Torino, level on points with Genoa. A win would take them above Torino.
Team news. Lazio are without M. Cancellieri (leg injury), A. Furlanetto (knee injury), A. Gudmundsson (shoulder injury), A. Marusic (muscle injury), L. Pellegrini (inactive), N. Rovella (calf injury). Monza are without P. Ciurria (muscle injury), O. Forson (inactive), M. Pessina (knee injury), I. Toure (contusion), J. Ziolkowski (foot injury), P. Ciurria (muscle injury).
Form. Lazio have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. Monza have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L.
The numbers. Lazio score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Lazio average 12.0 shots (3.8 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Monza score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Monza average 12.9 shots (5.2 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Lazio have won four, drawn two and lost none. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Lazio won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 9 Feb 2025, it finished Lazio 5-1 Monza: Lazio had 26 shots to 3, 61% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The read. Lazio to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Lazio the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Lazio; the meetings favour Lazio. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Lazio 1UP at 1.36, 78% on the records (Lazio scored first 4 of last 5, led in 5; led in 6 of 8). Backup: Over 2.5 Cards at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Lazio 1-0 Monza (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).