DCDER

15:00Sat 10 Oct

WRE

Derby County vs Wrexham AFC

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE BETSTRONG · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class E

DCv

Under 3.5 Goals

Derby County v Wrexham AFC

England - Championship · 15:00

1.30odds

77%book

+10edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Pride Park, Derby.

What's at stake. Derby County are 22nd on 5 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Cardiff, 1 point clear of Preston. A win would take them above Cardiff. Wrexham AFC are 14th on 10 points after 8 games, level on points with Southampton, level on points with Bolton. A win would take them above Southampton.

Form. Derby County have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. Wrexham AFC have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W.

The numbers. Derby County score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Derby County average 8.8 shots (2.6 on target), 6.4 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Wrexham AFC score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Wrexham AFC average 9.6 shots (3.7 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Derby County have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 4 Jan 2026, it finished Derby County 1-2 Wrexham AFC: Derby County had 13 shots to 11, 52% of the ball, three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.

The read. Wrexham AFC or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Wrexham AFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Wrexham AFC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.32, 74% on the records (Derby County: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Wrexham AFC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Wrexham AFC or Under 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Wrexham AFC 1UP (no side to back); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Derby County 1-1 Wrexham AFC (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Wrexham AFC or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.30

DER 4 of 5 (80%) · WRE 6 of 8 (75%)85%

Wrexham AFC scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Derby County trailed or failed to win in 5 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division

Double Chance: Draw or Wrexham AFCLEANPAGE ONLY

1.40

DER 6 of 8 (75%) · WRE 5 of 5 (100%)69%

Wrexham AFC unbeaten in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Derby County failed to win 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 88% · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division

Wrexham AFC (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.73

DER 2 of 5 (40%) · WRE 6 of 7 (86%)61.6%

Wrexham AFC won 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Derby County lost 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 63% · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · won 6, refunded 3, lost 2

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES

1.11

DER 5 of 5 (100%) · WRE 7 of 8 (88%)94.2%

Derby County: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.30

DER 4 of 5 (80%) · WRE 6 of 8 (75%)87.2%

Derby County: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

DERBY COUNTY GOALS

Derby County Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.48

DER 4 of 5 (80%) · WRE 5 of 8 (62%)68.8%

Derby County scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

Derby County Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 75%

1.33

DER 3 of 5 (60%) · WRE 6 of 8 (75%)48.9%

Derby County scored in 3 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC conceded in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

WREXHAM AFC GOALS

Wrexham AFC Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.31

DER 6 of 8 (75%) · WRE 5 of 5 (100%)67.1%

Wrexham AFC scored in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Derby County conceded in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 88% · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.09

DER 4 of 5 (80%) · WRE 7 of 8 (88%)84.3%

Derby County: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.20

DER 3 of 5 (60%) · WRE 7 of 8 (88%)74.9%

Derby County: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · on half-time scores · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.41

DER 2 of 5 (40%) · WRE 6 of 8 (75%)59.2%

Derby County: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Wrexham AFC: the bet landed in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · on half-time scores · Derby County: only games in Wrexham AFC's division · Wrexham AFC: only games against sides at Derby County's level

Left off the list: Wrexham AFC or Under 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Wrexham AFC 1UP (no side to back); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.4%

Derby County goals →

Wrexham AFC goals ↓

0-08%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-00.9%

5-00.2%

0-19%

1-113%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-33%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

DERBY COUNTYDLLLWLDLLL0.50 PPG

WREXHAM AFCWLDDWLDDLD1.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

DERBY COUNTY HOMExWREXHAM AFC AWAY

0.88SCORED A GAME1.121.75CONCEDED A GAME1.5010%CLEAN SHEETS20%38%FAILED TO SCORE25%6.38CORNERS A GAME4.752.30CARDS A GAME1.301.01xG1.071.82xG AGAINST1.33

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.62POINTS A GAME1.25-0.88GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.38-4.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-0.80.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.68LEAGUE GAMES8

Wrexham AFC: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

89%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

DERBY COUNTY OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

WREXHAM AFC OR DRAW

85%

OKAY · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

DERBY COUNTYxWREXHAM AFC

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.201.40CONCEDED A GAME1.602.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.880%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE40%3.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–12.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

DERBY COUNTY 0 · 0%DRAW 1WREXHAM AFC 1 · 50%

2025-09-27Derby County 1 – 1 Wrexham AFC

2026-01-04Derby County 1 – 2 Wrexham AFC

TRENDS

Derby County have scored in 70% of their games.

Wrexham AFC have scored in 70% of their games.

Derby County kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Wrexham AFC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards