Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton.
What's at stake. Bolton Wanderers are 15th on 10 points after 8 games, level on points with Wrexham, 1 point clear of Blackburn. A win would take them above Wrexham. Stoke City are 7th on 13 points after 8 games, level on points with QPR, level on points with Bristol City. A win would take them above QPR.
Form. Bolton Wanderers have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L. Stoke City have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W.
The numbers. Bolton Wanderers score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Bolton Wanderers average 10.1 shots (4.7 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Stoke City score 1.6 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Stoke City average 9.4 shots (3.9 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Bolton Wanderers have won two, drawn two and lost two. Three of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Bolton Wanderers won one, two were drawn and Stoke City won one. The last time they met, on 29 Dec 2018, it finished Bolton Wanderers 0-0 Stoke City: Bolton Wanderers had 13 shots to 11, 39% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Bolton Wanderers's record still gives them 36% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The read. Stoke City to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Stoke City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Stoke City; the meetings favour Stoke City.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.39, 71% on the records (Bolton Wanderers: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 8; Stoke City: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Bolton Wanderers Under 1.5 goals (Bolton Wanderers's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Bolton Wanderers 0-1 Stoke City (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).