Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
New York City FC scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · Chicago Fire conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 61% · H2H 2 of 6 · New York City FC: only games against sides at Chicago Fire's level · Chicago Fire: only games against sides at New York City FC's level
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time. It is played at Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois.
What's at stake. Chicago Fire are 5th on 42 points after 26 games, 1 point behind Charlotte, 3 points clear of Philadelphia Union. A win would take them above Charlotte. New York City FC are 9th on 33 points after 27 games, level on points with New York Red Bulls, level on points with FC Cincinnati. A win would take them above New York Red Bulls.
Form. Chicago Fire have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L D. New York City FC have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L D.
The numbers. Chicago Fire score 1.6 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Chicago Fire average 14.0 shots (5.5 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. New York City FC score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. New York City FC average 11.1 shots (4.0 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Chicago Fire have won none, drawn three and lost seven. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and New York City FC won three. The last time they met, on 25 Jul 2026, it finished Chicago Fire 1-3 New York City FC: Chicago Fire had 9 shots to 10, 54% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Chicago Fire are the stronger side on form and the table, but the meetings favour New York City FC. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. New York City FC's record still gives them 31% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Chicago Fire to win. An open game. Chicago Fire are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour New York City FC. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 74% on the records (Chicago Fire: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 9; New York City FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Chicago Fire are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Chicago Fire are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).