Brest vs Angers
Match details. Ligue 1. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Brest have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D D. Angers have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L.
The numbers. Brest score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Brest average 12.5 shots (4.5 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Angers score one and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Angers average 9.9 shots (3.7 on target), 7.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Brest the likelier winners, but Angers are the stronger side on form and the table. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 27% against the records' 57%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.54, 73% on the records (Brest: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Angers: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7). Backup: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Brest or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Angers or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Brest 1-1 Angers (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).