Napoli vs Frosinone
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Maradona Stadium, Naples. The referee is Ermanno Feliciani.
What's at stake. Napoli are 9th on 7 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Como, level on points with Sassuolo. A win would take them level on points with Como. Frosinone are 6th on 10 points after 5 games, 1 point behind AC Milan, level on points with Juventus. A win would take them above AC Milan.
Team news. Napoli are without Alisson Santos (muscle injury), F. Anguissa (groin injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury), C. Favasuli (thigh injury), M. Olivera (groin injury), A. Vergara (calf injury). Frosinone are without D. Birligea (muscle injury), F. Grillitsch (thigh injury), D. Birligea (muscle injury), F. Grillitsch (thigh injury).
Form. Napoli have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. Frosinone have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W.
The numbers. Napoli score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Napoli average 11.1 shots (3.9 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Frosinone score 2.3 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Frosinone average 15.4 shots (5.4 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Napoli have won five, drawn one and lost one. Six of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Napoli won two, one was drawn and Frosinone won one. The last time they met, on 14 Apr 2024, it finished Napoli 2-2 Frosinone: Napoli had 20 shots to 13, 66% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Napoli the likelier winners, but Frosinone are the stronger side on form and the table.
The case against. Frosinone's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Napoli or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Napoli the likelier winners; Frosinone are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%. Six of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 77% on the records (Napoli: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 9; Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5). Backup: Napoli Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 2.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Napoli 2-1 Frosinone (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).