Lille vs Le Havre
Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 16:15 Lagos time. It is played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq.
What's at stake. Lille are 4th on 10 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Paris FC, level on points with Rennes. A win would take them above Paris FC. Le Havre are 18th on 2 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Marseille. A win would take them above Marseille.
Form. Lille have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D. Le Havre have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D L.
The numbers. Lille score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Lille average 10.6 shots (5.1 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Le Havre score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Le Havre average 8.9 shots (4.3 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Lille have won four, drawn one and lost one. Three of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Lille won two, one was drawn and Le Havre won one. The last time they met, on 3 May 2026, it finished Lille 1-1 Le Havre: Lille had 22 shots to 2, 67% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 68% against the records' 43%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%.
The read. No firm call: Lille are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lille the likelier winners; Lille are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Lille. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Le Havre Under 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 81% on the records (Le Havre scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away; Lille conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 7). Full cover: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Lille are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Lille are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Lille 2-1 Le Havre (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).