Match details. Alaves face Atletico Madrid at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz for LaLiga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct at 15:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Alaves are 6th on 11 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Sevilla and 1 point clear of Deportivo La Coruna. A win would take them above Sevilla. Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 16 points after 7 games, 5 points behind Barcelona and level on points with Real Betis.
Form. Alaves have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their last five show D L L W W, with D L L W W D in this competition. Atletico Madrid have won five, drawn one and lost one of their last seven, taking 2.3 points a game. Their last five read W W W L W, going W W W L W D in the league.
The numbers. Alaves score 1.6 and concede 0.9 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 12.4 shots (4.4 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Atletico Madrid score 2.3 and concede one a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets. They average 17.0 shots (6.4 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 57% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Alaves have won two, drawn two and lost six. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, two were drawn and Atletico Madrid won two. They last met on 18 Jan 2026, finishing Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid, where Alaves had 8 shots to 23, 46% of the ball and two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. However, six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Alaves's record still gives them 26% to win.
The read. Atletico Madrid to win. Their goals for and against make Atletico Madrid the likelier winners. Atletico Madrid are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Atletico Madrid, and the meetings favour Atletico Madrid.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Atletico Madrid or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ALA 7 of 7 (100%) · ATL 5 of 7 (71%)86.3%
Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · H2H 5 of 6 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
Double Chance: Draw or Atletico MadridIN CODES
1.23
ALA 6 of 7 (86%) · ATL 4 of 7 (57%)81.8%
Atletico Madrid unbeaten in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves failed to win 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 5 of 6 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
Atletico Madrid (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.39
ALA 5 of 6 (83%) · ATL 2 of 5 (40%)79.8%
Atletico Madrid won 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Alaves lost 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 62% · H2H 3 of 4 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · won 3, refunded 0, lost 4
Atletico Madrid win or both teams scoreIN CODES
1.18
ALA 6 of 7 (86%) · ATL 4 of 7 (57%)78.8%
Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves: the bet landed in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
Atletico Madrid or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.17
ALA 5 of 7 (71%) · ATL 5 of 7 (71%)70.5%
Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 6 of 6 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
2nd Half - Double Chance: Draw or Atletico MadridPAGE ONLY
1.24
ALA 5 of 7 (71%) · ATL 5 of 7 (71%)70.2%
Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
Atletico Madrid or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.32
ALA 7 of 7 (100%) · ATL 4 of 7 (57%)60.7%
Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves: the bet landed in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · H2H 3 of 6 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
GOALS
Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.14
ALA 6 of 7 (86%) · ATL 7 of 7 (100%)93.3%
Alaves: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Madrid: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · H2H 6 of 6 · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level
Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.29
ALA 4 of 7 (57%) · ATL 7 of 7 (100%)75.2%
Alaves: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Madrid: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · H2H 4 of 6 · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level
ALAVES GOALS
Alaves Under 1.5 goalsLEANIN CODES
1.35
ALA 5 of 7 (71%) · ATL 5 of 7 (71%)67.1%
Alaves scored under 1.5 in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Madrid conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 5 of 6 · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level
ATLETICO MADRID GOALS
Atletico Madrid Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.19
ALA 6 of 7 (86%) · ATL 4 of 7 (57%)83.9%
Atletico Madrid scored in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Alaves conceded in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.24
ALA 5 of 7 (71%) · ATL 7 of 7 (100%)81%
Alaves: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level
Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.50
ALA 5 of 7 (71%) · ATL 6 of 7 (86%)75.6%
Alaves: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Madrid: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level
CARDS
Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ALA 6 of 7 (86%) · ATL 6 of 7 (86%)85.7%
Alaves's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Madrid's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · Alaves: only games against sides at Atletico Madrid's level · Atletico Madrid: only games against sides at Alaves's level
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 0–110.5%
Alaves goals →
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
0-08%
1-07%
2-04%
3-01%
4-00.4%
5-00.1%
0-110%
1-112%
2-16%
3-12%
4-10.6%
5-10.1%
0-29%
1-210%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.5%
5-20.1%
0-35%
1-35%
2-33%
3-31.0%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-42%
1-42%
2-41%
3-40.4%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.6%
1-50.7%
2-50.4%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).
FORM · LAST 7
ALAVESWDWWLLD1.57 PPG
ATLETICO MADRIDWDWLWWW2.29 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ALAVES HOMExATLETICO MADRID AWAY
1.57SCORED A GAME2.290.86CONCEDED A GAME1.0043%CLEAN SHEETS43%29%FAILED TO SCORE14%4.29CORNERS A GAME5.002.00CARDS A GAME2.001.29xG1.721.14xG AGAINST1.02
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
718 OF 767
NO PRICE YET
The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.80POINTS A GAME2.67+1.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+2.00+3.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.01.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.65LEAGUE GAMES6
Atletico Madrid: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).
ATLETICO MADRID 0:2 HANDICAP
–
373 OF 433
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
86%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
74%
OKAY · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
91%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
ALAVES OR DRAW
50%
NO · 80/85
ATLETICO MADRID OR DRAW
56%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ALAVESxATLETICO MADRID
5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME2.801.00CONCEDED A GAME0.803.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%40%BOTH SCORE60%5.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.28.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES7.6
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
ALAVES 2 · 20%DRAW 2ATLETICO MADRID 6 · 60%
5 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
4 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
1 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2021-01-03Alaves 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
2021-03-21Alaves 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
2021-09-25Alaves 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid
2022-04-02Alaves 1 – 4 Atletico Madrid
2023-10-29Alaves 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
2024-04-21Alaves 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
2024-11-23Alaves 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
2025-05-03Alaves 0 – 0 Atletico Madrid
TRENDS
Alaves failed to score in 29% of their games.
Atletico Madrid failed to score in 14% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAhead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards