SASUN

15:00Sat 10 Oct

BRI

BRI

Sunderland AFC vs Brighton

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. Premier League, round 6. Kick-off Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland.

What's at stake. Sunderland are 14th on 4 points after 5 games, a point behind Nottingham Forest and level with Crystal Palace. A win would lift them above Nottingham Forest. Brighton sit third on 10 points, two shy of Arsenal and a point clear of Brentford. A win would push them above Arsenal.

Form. Sunderland have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D. Brighton share the same record over ten, 1.7 points a game, and their last five read W W W D L.

The numbers. At home Sunderland score 0.8 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 11.4 shots (3.9 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards, holding 48% of the ball. Brighton score 2.2 and concede 1.4 away in five games, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 17.3 shots (5.9 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.8 cards, with 65% possession.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Sunderland have no wins, one draw and one loss. Neither game went over 2.5 goals and both sides failed to score. The most recent clash on 14 Mar 2026 ended 0-1 to Brighton, with Sunderland having 14 shots to 12, 48% possession and three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. Their goals for and against make Brighton the likelier winners, but Brighton are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sunderland AFC.

The case against. Sunderland's record still gives them 45% to win. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.

The read. Brighton or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Brighton the likelier winners; Brighton are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sunderland AFC.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sunderland AFC Under 1.5 goals (Brighton's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sunderland AFC 1-1 Brighton (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Brighton (Draw No Bet)HELD · the odds board 60%

1.68

SUN 3 of 5 (60%) · BRI 3 of 6 (50%)83.7%

Brighton won 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Sunderland AFC lost 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 55% · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level · Sunderland AFC: only games in Brighton's division · won 3, refunded 2, lost 6

Brighton or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

SUN 3 of 5 (60%) · BRI 4 of 6 (67%)71.7%

Brighton: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sunderland AFC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level

Brighton or Draw (1UP)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.28

SUN 3 of 5 (60%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)62.2%

Brighton scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sunderland AFC trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level

Brighton 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.61

SUN 3 of 5 (60%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)56.7%

Brighton scored first 2 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sunderland AFC trailed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level

Brighton to WinLEANPAGE ONLY

2.40

SUN 3 of 5 (60%) · BRI 1 of 6 (17%)55.1%

Brighton won 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sunderland AFC lost 1 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 38% · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.16

SUN 6 of 6 (100%) · BRI 2 of 5 (40%)87.7%

Sunderland AFC: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: under 4.5 goals in 2 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.42

SUN 5 of 6 (83%) · BRI 1 of 5 (20%)70%

Sunderland AFC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: under 3.5 goals in 1 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 52% · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level

BRIGHTON GOALS

Brighton Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.25

SUN 4 of 5 (80%) · BRI 4 of 6 (67%)80.6%

Brighton scored in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sunderland AFC conceded in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.38

SUN 3 of 6 (50%) · BRI 5 of 5 (100%)75%

Sunderland AFC: the bet landed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.16

SUN 5 of 6 (83%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)71.7%

Sunderland AFC's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton's games: over 2.5 cards in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · Sunderland AFC: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Sunderland AFC's level

Left off the list: Sunderland AFC Under 1.5 goals (Brighton's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.2%

Sunderland AFC goals →

Brighton goals ↓

0-07%

1-06%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-112%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.6%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-210%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-35%

1-35%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.7%

1-50.7%

2-50.4%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SUNDERLAND AFCLWLWDWLWWD1.70 PPG

BRIGHTONWWWDLWWDLL1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SUNDERLAND AFC HOMExBRIGHTON AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME3.202.00CONCEDED A GAME1.0040%CLEAN SHEETS50%20%FAILED TO SCORE0%4.00CORNERS A GAME5.402.20CARDS A GAME1.801.95xG2.301.73xG AGAINST1.73

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.80POINTS A GAME2.00-0.80GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+2.20+1.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+5.80.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.05LEAGUE GAMES5

Brighton: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

BRIGHTON 0:2 HANDICAP

–

54 OF 60

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

61%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

69%

NO · 85/90

SUNDERLAND AFC OR DRAW

56%

NO · 80/85

BRIGHTON OR DRAW

54%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SUNDERLAND AFCxBRIGHTON

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME3.202.00CONCEDED A GAME1.003.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

SUNDERLAND AFC 0 · 0%DRAW 1BRIGHTON 1 · 50%

2025-12-20Sunderland AFC 0 – 0 Brighton

2026-03-14Sunderland AFC 0 – 1 Brighton

TRENDS

Sunderland AFC have scored in 80% of their games.

Brighton have scored in 70% of their games.

Sunderland AFC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Brighton kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards