Ipswich Town vs Fulham
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. The game is at Portman Road, Ipswich, Suffolk.
What's at stake. Ipswich Town sit 11th on 6 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Chelsea and 1 point clear of Manchester United. A win would lift them above Chelsea. Fulham sit 19th on 2 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Coventry and level on points with Tottenham. A win would move them above Coventry.
Form. Ipswich Town have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Fulham have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L L.
The numbers. At home in their last five Ipswich score two and concede 1.6, with one clean sheet. They average 11.2 shots (5.5 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game, holding 45% of the ball. Fulham score 1.4 and concede 1.2 over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 14.3 shots (4.8 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, holding 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Ipswich have won one, drawn three and lost six. Five of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in seven. In the last four meetings two were drawn and Fulham won two. The most recent clash on 5 Jan 2025 ended 2-2, with Ipswich having 7 shots to 15, 27% of the ball and six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Ipswich Town look stronger on form and the table, yet the head-to-head favours Fulham. Their goal records hint at an open game, and overall they sit at a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals.
The case against. Fulham still carry a 44% chance to win. The recent meetings don't back them. Their goal stats also point to an open game.
The read. Ipswich Town or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Ipswich Town are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Fulham, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.48, 71% on the records (Ipswich Town: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5; Fulham: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Ipswich Town 1UP (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ipswich Town 1-1 Fulham (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).