Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time at Stamford Bridge, London. The referee is Samuel Barrott.
What's at stake. Chelsea sit 10th on 7 points after five games, one point behind Newcastle and one clear of Ipswich. A win would lift them above Newcastle. Bournemouth are 17th on 3 points after five games, one point behind Aston Villa and level with Coventry. A win would move them above Aston Villa.
Form. Chelsea have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W. Bournemouth have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, averaging 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W D.
The numbers. Chelsea score 2.7 and concede 1.7 a game at home in their last six, with one clean sheet. They average 12.0 shots (4.7 on target), 6.6 corners and 2.3 cards, holding 47% of the ball. Bournemouth score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game away in their last five, with one clean sheet. They average 13.8 shots (4.9 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.8 cards, holding 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Chelsea have won four and drawn four, never losing. Four of those eight went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in four matches. In the last four meetings Chelsea won one and three were drawn. Their latest clash on 30 Dec 2025 ended 2-2, with each side having 17 shots and 67% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board makes it 57% against the records' 26%.
The read. No firm call: Chelsea are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Chelsea the likelier winners; the meetings favour Chelsea. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 76% on the records (Chelsea: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7; Bournemouth: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).