Aston Villa vs Brentford
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. The game is at Villa Park in Birmingham. Craig Pawson will referee.
What's at stake. Aston Villa sit 16th on 4 points after 5 games, level with Crystal Palace and a point clear of Bournemouth. A win would lift them above Crystal Palace. Brentford sit 4th on 9 points after 5 games, one point behind Brighton and level with Leeds. A win would move them above Brighton.
Form. Villa have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five are W W L W D. Brentford have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five are W W D D D.
The numbers. Villa score 1.6 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 12.1 shots (5.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Brentford score two and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. They average 12.9 shots (4.5 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Villa have won four, drawn three and lost two. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in five. In the last four meetings each side has two wins. The last clash on 1 Feb 2026 ended Villa 0-1 Brentford, with Villa having 27 shots to 6, 72% of the ball and four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Aston Villa the likelier winners, but Brentford are the stronger side on form and the table.
The case against. Aston Villa's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Brentford or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Aston Villa the likelier winners; Brentford are the stronger side on form and the table, pointing to an open game with over 2.5 goals at 61% and five of the last nine meetings going over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Brentford 1UP (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Aston Villa 1-2 Brentford (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).