Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Match details. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time. The game is at the WWK Arena in Augsburg.
What's at stake. Augsburg sit fourth on 7 points after four games, three behind SC Freiburg and level with Bayer Leverkusen. A win would put them level with SC Freiburg. Bayern Munich are second on 10 points after four games, two behind Borussia Dortmund and level with SC Freiburg. A win would lift them above Borussia Dortmund.
Form. Augsburg have six wins, two draws and two losses from their last ten, averaging 2.0 points a game. Their last five results are L D W W W. Bayern Munich have nine wins, one draw and no losses in their last ten, averaging 2.8 points a game. Their last five are W W W D W.
The numbers. Augsburg score 2.2 and concede 1.4 per game over their last ten, keeping two clean sheets. They average 11.2 shots (5.8 on target), 4.8 corners, 1.4 cards and 42% possession. Bayern Munich score 3.6 and concede 0.6 per game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. They average 18.3 shots (8.2 on target), 9.5 corners, 0.7 cards and 70% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Augsburg have won two and lost eight, with no draws. Eight of those ten games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in seven. In the last four meetings Augsburg won one and Bayern Munich won three. The most recent clash on 24 Jan 2026 ended Augsburg 2-1 Bayern, with Augsburg on 16 shots to 15, 30% possession and two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board makes it 83% against the records' 59%.
The read. No firm call: Bayern Munich are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bayern the likelier winners, they are stronger on form and the table, both teams' records and the meetings favour Bayern. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 88% and eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (Bayern Munich are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 4.5 Goals (Bayern Munich are a clear winner, no Unders); Augsburg Under 1.5 goals (Augsburg's own games don't back it (2 of 9)). Predicted score: Augsburg 1-2 Bayern Munich (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).