Malaga CF vs Espanyol
Match details. LaLiga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at La Rosaleda, Malaga. The referee is Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso.
What's at stake. Malaga CF are 20th on 3 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Valencia. A win would take them above Valencia. Espanyol are 15th on 7 points after 7 games, level on points with Celta Vigo, level on points with Racing Santander. A win would take them above Celta Vigo.
Team news. Malaga CF are without J. Cajuste (injury), M. Diarra (calf injury), J. Lobete (knee injury), D. Murillo (knee injury), A. Ochoa (knee injury), J. Salinas (loan agreement). Espanyol are without K. Garcia (hamstring injury), Jofre (groin injury), K. Garcia (hamstring injury), Jofre (groin injury).
Form. Malaga CF have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L. Espanyol have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D L.
The numbers. Malaga CF score 0.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Malaga CF average 8.8 shots (2.7 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Espanyol score 1.5 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Espanyol average 11.4 shots (4.5 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Malaga CF have won none, drawn two and lost six. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Espanyol won four. The last time they met, on 2 May 2021, it finished Malaga CF 0-3 Espanyol: Malaga CF had 9 shots to 11, 50% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Espanyol are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Espanyol are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Espanyol; the meetings favour Espanyol. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.29, 75% on the records (Malaga CF: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Espanyol: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Malaga CF 1-1 Espanyol (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).