EVECV

00:00Thu 8 Oct

CHA

EC Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC

CLASS B

THE READ

Match details. We're looking at round 29 of the Brasileiro Serie A. Kick-off is Thu 8 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time at Estadio Manoel Barradas in El Salvador. Edina Alves Batista will be the referee.

What's at stake. Vitoria sit 13th with 33 points after 28 games, 2 points behind Botafogo and 1 point clear of Corinthians. A win would lift them above Botafogo. Chapecoense are 20th with 18 points after 27 games, 5 points behind Remo.

Team news. Vitoria are missing Baralhas, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Fabiano and Nathan Mendes through injuries. Ramon is their centre-back. Chapecoense are without Heitor, Max Alves, Rafael Carvalheira, Robert Conceicao, Vinicius Balieiro and Dudu Marques.

Form. Vitoria have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game, with a recent run L D W L L and a league pattern L D W L L W. Chapecoense have won two, drawn three and lost four of their last nine, 1.0 points a game, their last five D L W L W and a league pattern D L W L W D.

The numbers. At home Vitoria score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five, keeping two clean sheets and having two games without a goal. They average 14.5 shots (4.1 on target), 5.8 corners, 2.8 cards and 39% possession. Away, Chapecoense score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five, with no clean sheets. They average 12.6 shots (3.8 on target), 4.0 corners, 2.6 cards and 42% possession.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Vitoria have won four, drawn three and lost three. Four of those ten went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in six. In the last four meetings Vitoria won one, two were drawn and Chapecoense won one. Their most recent clash on 5 Apr 2026 ended 1-1, with Vitoria registering 15 shots to 25, 42% possession and five yellow cards.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side, and their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 49% while six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: EC Vitoria BA 1-1 Chapecoense SC (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

ECV 5 of 5 (100%) · CHA 5 of 5 (100%)88.6%

EC Vitoria BA: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Chapecoense SC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 94% · H2H 6 of 6 · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Chapecoense SC's level · Chapecoense SC: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ECV 5 of 5 (100%) · CHA 4 of 5 (80%)89.2%

EC Vitoria BA's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 5 at home · Chapecoense SC's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 88% · EC Vitoria BA: only games against sides at Chapecoense SC's level · Chapecoense SC: only games against sides at EC Vitoria BA's level

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.3%

EC Vitoria BA goals →

Chapecoense SC goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.6%

1-40.8%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

EC VITORIA BADLLLWLLWDL0.80 PPG

CHAPECOENSE SCLDLDWLWLD1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

EC VITORIA BA HOMExCHAPECOENSE SC AWAY

0.60SCORED A GAME1.331.70CONCEDED A GAME2.0030%CLEAN SHEETS20%32%FAILED TO SCORE30%5.75CORNERS A GAME4.002.75CARDS A GAME2.620.99xG1.091.50xG AGAINST1.57

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME1.00-0.60GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.44–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.45LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

77%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

EC VITORIA BA OR DRAW

64%

NO · 80/85

CHAPECOENSE SC OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

EC VITORIA BAxCHAPECOENSE SC

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.201.40CONCEDED A GAME1.402.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

EC VITORIA BA 4 · 40%DRAW 3CHAPECOENSE SC 3 · 30%

6 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

4 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

2 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2016-10-01EC Vitoria BA 4 – 1 Chapecoense SC

2017-07-22EC Vitoria BA 1 – 2 Chapecoense SC

2017-11-16EC Vitoria BA 1 – 2 Chapecoense SC

2018-06-06EC Vitoria BA 1 – 0 Chapecoense SC

2018-10-14EC Vitoria BA 1 – 0 Chapecoense SC

2020-10-17EC Vitoria BA 1 – 1 Chapecoense SC

2021-01-17EC Vitoria BA 0 – 0 Chapecoense SC

2023-07-24EC Vitoria BA 1 – 0 Chapecoense SC

TEAM NEWS

EC VITORIA BA

Out: Baralhas (Broken Leg), Camutanga (Broken Leg), Dudu (Back Injury), Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury), Fabiano (Knee Injury), Nathan Mendes (Knee Injury)

CHAPECOENSE SC

Out: Heitor (Hamstring Injury), Max Alves (Back Injury), Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury), Robert Conceicao (Knee Injury), Vinicius Balieiro (Knee Injury), Dudu Marques (Inactive)

TRENDS

EC Vitoria BA have scored in 60% of their games.

Chapecoense SC have scored in 80% of their games.

EC Vitoria BA kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Chapecoense SC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards