Boca Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe
Match details. We have Clausura - 11 action in the Primera LPF as Boca Juniors host Union de Santa Fe. Kick-off at Alberto J. Armando in Buenos Aires is on Sat 3 Oct at 01:30 Lagos time. Sebastian Nicolas Martinez is the referee for this one.
What's at stake. Boca Juniors are 5th on 17 points after ten games. They are level on points with Gimnasia M. and Independiente, so a win takes them above Gimnasia M.. Union de Santa Fe are 9th on 13 points after ten games, three points behind Newells Old Boys and two points clear of San Lorenzo. A win puts them level with Newells Old Boys.
Form. Boca Juniors have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, taking 1.7 points a game. Their last five matches read W W D W D, and they have gone W W D W D D in this competition. Union de Santa Fe have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, averaging 1.3 points a game. They went L L W W W in their last five, and L L W W W L in this tournament.
The numbers. Boca Juniors score 1.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten outings, keeping three clean sheets. They average 15.7 shots (5.1 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.4 cards, with 57% of the ball. Union de Santa Fe score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away games, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 14.5 shots (4.4 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.4 cards, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In their last ten meetings, Boca Juniors have won two, drawn five and lost three. Two of those ten went over 2.5 goals, with both sides scoring in six. Boca Juniors won one of the last four, with three draws. Their last meeting on 16 Mar 2026 ended 1-1, where Boca Juniors had 16 shots to 14, 61% of the ball and five yellow cards.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. For me, nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side, with their goals for and against pointing to a tight battle. Their records put over 2.5 goals at just 44%, and eight of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.32, 74% on the records (Boca Juniors: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10; Union de Santa Fe: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Boca Juniors Over 0.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Boca Juniors or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 4.5 cards (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Boca Juniors 1-1 Union de Santa Fe (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).