Match details. J2 League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 06:00 Lagos time. It is played at Fujieda Soccer Stadium, Fujieda City.
What's at stake. Fujieda MYFC are 9th on 12 points after 8 games, level on points with Montedio Yamagata, 1 point clear of Tegevajaro Miyazaki. A win would take them above Montedio Yamagata. Shonan Bellmare are 4th on 15 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Albirex Niigata, 1 point clear of Kataller Toyama. A win would take them above Albirex Niigata.
Form. Fujieda MYFC have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D L. Shonan Bellmare have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D L.
The numbers. Fujieda MYFC score 1.3 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Fujieda MYFC average 6.4 shots (2.7 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Shonan Bellmare score 1.5 and concede one a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets. Shonan Bellmare average 9.0 shots (2.8 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.2 cards a game.
The read. Shonan Bellmare to win. A tight game. Shonan Bellmare are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Shonan Bellmare. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.28, 72% on the records (Fujieda MYFC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6; Shonan Bellmare: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Fujieda MYFC 0-1 Shonan Bellmare (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).