Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis
Match details. J2 League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 06:00 Lagos time. It is played at Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata.
What's at stake. Albirex Niigata are 3rd on 16 points after 8 games, level on points with Omiya Ardija, 1 point clear of Shonan Bellmare. A win would take them above Omiya Ardija. Tokushima Vortis are 7th on 13 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Yokohama FC, 1 point clear of Montedio Yamagata. A win would take them above Yokohama FC.
Form. Albirex Niigata have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W L. Tokushima Vortis have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W.
The numbers. Albirex Niigata score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Albirex Niigata average 9.8 shots (4.6 on target), 3.8 corners and 0.6 cards a game. Tokushima Vortis score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tokushima Vortis average 11.1 shots (4.3 on target), 4.1 corners and 0.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Albirex Niigata have won three, drawn four and lost three. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Albirex Niigata won one, two were drawn and Tokushima Vortis won one. The last time they met, on 6 May 2026, it finished Albirex Niigata 1-0 Tokushima Vortis.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, 70% on the records (Albirex Niigata: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 7; Tokushima Vortis: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7). Leave: Albirex Niigata or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Tokushima Vortis or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Albirex Niigata 1-1 Tokushima Vortis (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).