Defensa y Justicia vs CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Match details. Primera LPF, Clausura - 11. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 18:45 Lagos time. The match is at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires. Luis Lobo Medina is the referee.
What's at stake. Defensa y Justicia sit 4th on 18 points after 10 games, two points behind Velez Sarsfield and one ahead of Gimnasia M.. A win would lift them above Velez Sarsfield. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro are 10th on 11 points after 10 games, two points behind Union Santa Fe and one ahead of Estudiantes L.P.. A win would move them above Union Santa Fe.
Form. Defensa y Justicia have five wins, three draws and two losses in their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five results are D W L W W and in this competition they have gone D W L W W D. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro have three wins, two draws and five losses in their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five are L D W L D and in this competition they have gone L D W L D W.
The numbers. At home in their last five Defensa y Justicia score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game, keeping two clean sheets. They average 14.2 shots (5.4 on target), 4.1 corners, 2.4 cards and 51% possession. Away in their last five CA San Lorenzo de Almagro score 0.2 and concede 0.8 a game, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. They average 10.8 shots (3.2 on target), 3.2 corners, 2.8 cards and 48% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Defensa y Justicia have five wins, three draws and two losses. Three of those ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four meetings Defensa y Justicia won three and one was drawn. The last clash on 16 Mar 2026 ended 5-2 to Defensa y Justicia, with 11 shots to 17, 47% possession and three yellow cards.
The read. Defensa y Justicia to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Defensa y Justicia the likelier winners; they are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records and the meetings favour Defensa y Justicia. Their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 20% and seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.18, 95% on the records (Defensa y Justicia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Defensa y Justicia or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Defensa y Justicia 1-0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (17% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).