SPSAO

00:00Sat 3 Oct

SAN

Sao Paulo FC SP vs Santos FC SP

CLASS B

THE READ

Match details. Sao Paulo FC SP host Santos FC SP in the Brasileiro Serie A. Kick-off is on Sat 3 Oct at 00:00 Lagos time.

Form. Sao Paulo FC SP have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.5 points a game. Their last five matches, newest first, are W, D, L, L, W. Santos FC SP have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, with 1.8 points a game. Their last five read W, L, W, W, W.

The numbers. At home, Sao Paulo FC SP score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six, keeping two clean sheets. They average 6.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Santos FC SP score 1.3 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 5.6 corners and 3.0 cards.

Where it pulls both ways. For me, it pulls both ways. Their goals for and against make Sao Paulo FC SP the likelier winners, but Santos FC SP are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Santos FC SP, yet their goals point to an open game. Overall, their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Sao Paulo FC SP Under 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Santos FC SP win or both teams score (no result call). Predicted score: Sao Paulo FC SP 1-1 Santos FC SP (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

SAO 6 of 6 (100%) · SAN 4 of 5 (80%)90%

Sao Paulo FC SP: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Santos FC SP: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at Santos FC SP's level · Santos FC SP: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.84

SAO 2 of 6 (33%) · SAN 4 of 5 (80%)56.7%

Sao Paulo FC SP: both scored in 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Santos FC SP: both scored in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 57% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at Santos FC SP's level · Santos FC SP: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

SAO PAULO FC SP GOALS

Sao Paulo FC SP Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.24

SAO 4 of 6 (67%) · SAN 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%

Sao Paulo FC SP scored in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Santos FC SP conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at Santos FC SP's level · Santos FC SP: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level

SANTOS FC SP GOALS

Santos FC SP Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.47

SAO 5 of 5 (100%) · SAN 4 of 6 (67%)83.3%

Santos FC SP scored in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Sao Paulo FC SP conceded in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · Santos FC SP: only games against sides at Sao Paulo FC SP's level · Sao Paulo FC SP: only games against sides at Santos FC SP's level

Left off the list: Sao Paulo FC SP Under 1.5 goals (the numbers (51%) and the records (73%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Santos FC SP win or both teams score (no result call)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.4%

Sao Paulo FC SP goals →

Santos FC SP goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.3%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

SAO PAULO FC SPWDLLWWLWDD1.50 PPG

SANTOS FC SPWLWWWDWLDD1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SAO PAULO FC SP HOMExSANTOS FC SP AWAY

1.19SCORED A GAME1.521.11CONCEDED A GAME1.4850%BOTH SCORED50%20%CLEAN SHEETS40%6.59CORNERS A GAME5.562.19CARDS A GAME3.00

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.40POINTS A GAME1.83+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.33–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.25LEAGUE GAMES6

Santos FC SP: the quality side - better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

72%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SAO PAULO FC SP OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

SANTOS FC SP OR DRAW

51%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SAO PAULO FC SPxSANTOS FC SP

5GAMES51.00SCORED A GAME1.801.00CONCEDED A GAME1.202.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.060%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Sao Paulo FC SP have scored in 70% of their games.

Santos FC SP have scored in 70% of their games.

Sao Paulo FC SP kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Santos FC SP kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards