Spain vs Croatia
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville. The referee is Serdar Gozubuyuk.
What's at stake. Spain are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Croatia. Croatia are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Spain, 3 points clear of England. A win would take them above Spain.
Form. Spain have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Spain have gone W. Croatia have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. In this competition Croatia have gone W.
The numbers. Spain score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Spain average 16.9 shots (5.9 on target), 6.0 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 62% of the ball. Croatia score 1.5 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Croatia average 14.8 shots (5.4 on target), 6.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Spain have won three, drawn none and lost two. Four of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Spain won two and Croatia won two. The last time they met, on 15 Jun 2024, it finished Spain 3-0 Croatia: Spain had 11 shots to 16, 47% of the ball, one yellow card.
The read. Spain to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Spain the likelier winners; Spain are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Spain; the meetings favour Spain. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 84%. Four of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Spain Over 1.5 Goals at 1.30, rated 78% (Spain scored over 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home; Croatia conceded over 1.5 in 3 of 6 away). The safer one: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14 (86%). Backup: Spain or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Spain 2-1 Croatia (9% chance).
The agreed story. Spain to win, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Spain in their last internationals: won 3-2 at England. Croatia in their last internationals: won 2-1 at Czechia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).