Slovenia vs North Macedonia
Match details. It's a UEFA Nations League League B, 2 clash. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time at Stožice Stadium in Ljubljana. Referee Andrea Colombo will be in charge.
What's at stake. Slovenia sit 3rd on 1 point after one game, level with Scotland and a point clear of FYR Macedonia. A win would lift them above Scotland. North Macedonia are 4th on 0 points, one point behind Slovenia, and a win would put them top of the table.
Form. Slovenia have no wins, seven draws and three losses in their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five are D D L D D. In this competition they are D D D L. North Macedonia have three wins, four draws and three defeats in their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five are L L L D D. In this competition they have L.
The numbers. At home Slovenia average 0.6 goals for and 1.6 against in their last five, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. They fire 7.8 shots per game (2.0 on target), 3.2 corners, 2.1 cards and hold 42% possession. Away North Macedonia average one goal for and 2.2 against in their last five, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 8.7 shots (2.7 on target), 3.5 corners, 2.3 cards and keep 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Slovenia have no wins, one draw and one loss. One of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in both matches. The last clash on 10 Oct 2019 ended 1-2 to North Macedonia, with Slovenia on 12 shots to 13, 54% possession and five yellows.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board shows 59% for Slovenia while the records suggest only 26%.
The read. No firm call: Slovenia are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Slovenia the likelier winners; Slovenia are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Slovenia 1-1 North Macedonia (13% chance).
The agreed story. Slovenia or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Slovenia in their last internationals: drew 0-0 v Scotland. North Macedonia in their last internationals: lost 0-3 v Switzerland. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).