Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Kosicka futbalova arena, Kosice. The referee is Patrik Kolaric.

What's at stake. Slovakia are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, 2 points clear of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan are 2nd on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Slovakia, level on points with Faroe Islands. A win would take them above Slovakia.

Form. Slovakia have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. In this competition Slovakia have gone W D W. Kazakhstan have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D D. In this competition Kazakhstan have gone D.

The numbers. Slovakia score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last seven at home, with six clean sheets. Slovakia average 13.2 shots (3.3 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Kazakhstan score 1.2 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Kazakhstan average 15.8 shots (5.0 on target), 5.5 corners and 3.5 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.

Head to head. Kazakhstan have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 13 Jun 2022, it finished Slovakia 1-2 Kazakhstan: Slovakia had 17 shots to 7, 69% of the ball, five yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 78% against the records' 55%.

The read. No firm call: Slovakia are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Slovakia the likelier winners; Slovakia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Slovakia. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 23%.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.41, rated 77% (Slovakia: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home; Kazakhstan: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Slovakia Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Slovakia 2-0 Kazakhstan (13% chance).

The agreed story. Slovakia or the draw, a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Slovakia in their last internationals: won 2-0 v Moldova. Kazakhstan in their last internationals: drew 1-1 at Faroe Islands. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.