Match details. UEFA Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Hampden Park Stadium, Glasgow. The referee is Nenad Minakovic.
What's at stake. Scotland are 3rd on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Slovenia, 1 point clear of FYR Macedonia. A win would take them above Slovenia. Switzerland are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, 2 points clear of Slovenia.
Form. Scotland have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W. In this competition Scotland have gone D. Switzerland have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Switzerland have gone W.
The numbers. Scotland score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Scotland average 11.0 shots (4.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Switzerland score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Switzerland average 13.1 shots (5.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 0.5 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 19 Jun 2024, it finished Scotland 1-1 Switzerland: Scotland had 12 shots to 11, 48% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Scotland's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Switzerland to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Switzerland the likelier winners; Switzerland are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Switzerland.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Switzerland at 1.23, rated 80% (Switzerland unbeaten in 8 of 8; Scotland failed to win 2 of 5 at home). Backup: Switzerland Over 0.5 Goals at 1.25. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Scotland 0-1 Switzerland (11% chance).
The agreed story. Switzerland or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Scotland in their last internationals: drew 0-0 at Slovenia. Switzerland in their last internationals: won 3-0 at North Macedonia. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).