San Marino vs Albania
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at San Marino Stadium, Serravalle. The referee is Mihaly Kapraly.
What's at stake. San Marino are 4th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Belarus. A win would take them above Belarus. Albania are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Finland, 3 points clear of Belarus. A win would take them above Finland.
Form. San Marino have won one, drawn none and lost nine of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition San Marino have gone L W. Albania have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. In this competition Albania have gone W.
The numbers. San Marino score 0.2 and concede 5.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. San Marino average 3.9 shots (0.8 on target), 1.5 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 28% of the ball. Albania score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Albania average 7.8 shots (2.5 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. Albania have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 8 Sep 2021, it finished San Marino 0-5 Albania: San Marino had 0 shots to 25, 28% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 71%.
The read. No firm call: Albania are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Albania the likelier winners; Albania are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Albania. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: San Marino 1-2 Albania (10% chance).
The agreed story. Albania or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. San Marino in their last internationals: lost 0-7 v Finland. Albania in their last internationals: won 2-0 v Belarus. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).