BULBUL

19:45Tue 29 Sep

EST

EST

Bulgaria vs Estonia

CLASS A

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THE BETLIVELY · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class A

BULv

EST

Over 1.5 Goals

Bulgaria v Estonia

International - UEFA… · 19:45

1.46odds

68%book

-2edge

1/1angles

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv. The referee is Goga Kikacheishvili.

What's at stake. Bulgaria are 4th on 0 points after 1 game, 1 point behind Iceland. A win would take them above Iceland. Estonia are 2nd on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Luxembourg, level on points with Iceland. A win would take them above Luxembourg.

Form. Bulgaria have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Bulgaria have gone L L. Estonia have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L. In this competition Estonia have gone D.

The numbers. Bulgaria score 1.6 and concede 2.5 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Bulgaria average 5.7 shots (2.7 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 32% of the ball. Estonia score 0.7 and concede two a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Estonia average 4.0 shots (2.0 on target), 1.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 33% of the ball.

The case against. Estonia's record still gives them 46% to win.

The read. Bulgaria to win. Bulgaria are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bulgaria.

The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Bulgaria 2-1 Estonia (8% chance).

The agreed story. Bulgaria or the draw, goals in between.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Bulgaria in their last internationals: lost 1-2 v Luxembourg. Estonia in their last internationals: drew 1-1 at Iceland (rated above them). Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Bulgaria or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.49

BUL 9 of 10 (90%) · EST 6 of 10 (60%)62.8%

Bulgaria: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Estonia: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES

1.09

BUL 10 of 10 (100%) · EST 10 of 10 (100%)97%

Bulgaria: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Estonia: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.46

BUL 9 of 10 (90%) · EST 7 of 10 (70%)66.2%

Bulgaria: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Estonia: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.35

BUL 8 of 10 (80%) · EST 10 of 10 (100%)90.1%

Bulgaria: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Estonia: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Estonia or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Bulgaria); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.4%

Bulgaria goals →

Estonia goals ↓

0-05%

1-06%

2-05%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-16%

1-112%

2-18%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.2%

0-41%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.7%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.3%

1-50.5%

2-50.4%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

BULGARIALLLLLLWWWL0.90 PPG

ESTONIALLLLDLLWWD0.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BULGARIA HOMExESTONIA AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME0.702.50CONCEDED A GAME2.0010%CLEAN SHEETS20%2.83CORNERS A GAME1.001.67CARDS A GAME2.330.52xG0.712.24xG AGAINST3.45

TRENDS

Bulgaria have scored in 60% of their games.

Estonia have scored in 70% of their games.

Bulgaria kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards