Sweden vs Poland
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Strawberry Arena, Solna. The referee is Javier Alberola Rojas.
What's at stake. Sweden are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, 2 points clear of Bosnia & Herzegovina. Poland are 3rd on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Bosnia & Herzegovina, 1 point clear of Romania. A win would take them above Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Form. Sweden have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W. In this competition Sweden have gone W. Poland have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W D. In this competition Poland have gone D.
The numbers. Sweden score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Sweden average 11.1 shots (4.8 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Poland score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Poland average 14.4 shots (5.1 on target), 6.4 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Sweden have won two, drawn none and lost one. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 31 Mar 2026, it finished Sweden 3-2 Poland: Sweden had 9 shots to 15, 33% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Poland's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Sweden to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sweden the likelier winners; Sweden are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sweden. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%. Two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, rated 91% (Sweden: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Poland: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Predicted score: Sweden 2-1 Poland (9% chance).
The agreed story. Sweden or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Sweden in their last internationals: won 2-1 v Romania. Poland in their last internationals: drew 0-0 v Bosnia & Herzegovina. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).