Northern Ireland vs Hungary
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Puskás Aréna, Budapest. The referee is Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea.
What's at stake. Northern Ireland are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Ukraine, 3 points clear of Hungary. A win would take them above Ukraine. Hungary are 3rd on 0 points after 1 game, 3 points behind Northern Ireland, level on points with Georgia. A win would take them level on points with Northern Ireland.
Form. Northern Ireland have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. In this competition Northern Ireland have gone W D W. Hungary have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. In this competition Hungary have gone L L L D.
The numbers. Northern Ireland score 1.2 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Northern Ireland average 9.4 shots (3.1 on target), 3.9 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 37% of the ball. Hungary score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Hungary average 12.9 shots (4.4 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
The case against. Hungary's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Northern Ireland to win. A tight game. Northern Ireland are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Northern Ireland. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Northern Ireland 1-0 Hungary (9% chance).
The agreed story. Northern Ireland or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Northern Ireland in their last internationals: won 1-0 at Georgia. Hungary in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Ukraine. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).