Latvia vs Cyprus

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Skonto, Riga. The referee is Michal Ocenas.

What's at stake. Latvia are 4th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Cyprus. A win would take them above Cyprus. Cyprus are 3rd on 0 points after 1 game, 3 points behind Montenegro, level on points with Latvia. A win would take them level on points with Montenegro.

Form. Latvia have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L. In this competition Latvia have gone L W W. Cyprus have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D D. In this competition Cyprus have gone L L.

The numbers. Latvia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Latvia average 9.2 shots (2.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Cyprus score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Cyprus average 11.2 shots (4.0 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Cyprus are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Latvia.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Latvia 1-1 Cyprus (14% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Cyprus the favourite), a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Latvia in their last internationals: lost 0-2 at Armenia. Cyprus in their last internationals: lost 1-2 at Montenegro (rated above them). Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.