Georgia vs Ukraine
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi. The referee is Aliyar Agayev.
What's at stake. Georgia are 4th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Hungary. A win would take them above Hungary. Ukraine are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Northern Ireland, 3 points clear of Hungary. A win would take them above Northern Ireland.
Form. Georgia have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition Georgia have gone L W W L. Ukraine have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. In this competition Ukraine have gone W L W.
The numbers. Georgia score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Georgia average 11.6 shots (4.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Ukraine score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Ukraine average 11.0 shots (4.4 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Georgia have won none, drawn one and lost one. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 16 Nov 2024, it finished Georgia 1-1 Ukraine: Georgia had 18 shots to 7, 57% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 35% against the records' 63%.
The read. No firm call: Ukraine are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Ukraine are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ukraine. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 76%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.37, rated 86% (Georgia: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Ukraine: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Predicted score: Georgia 1-2 Ukraine (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Ukraine the favourite), an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Georgia in their last internationals: lost 0-1 v Northern Ireland. Ukraine in their last internationals: won 1-0 at Hungary. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).