ARMARM

17:00Mon 28 Sep

MNE

MON

Armenia vs Montenegro

CLASS A

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THE BETSTRONG · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

TOTAL GOALS

Class A

ARMv

MON

Over 1.5 Goals

Armenia v Montenegro

International - UEFA… · 17:00

1.34odds

75%book

+11edge

—angles

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. The referee is Jose Luis Munuera Montero.

What's at stake. Armenia are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Montenegro. Montenegro are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Armenia, 3 points clear of Cyprus. A win would take them above Armenia.

Form. Armenia have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Armenia have gone W L L W. Montenegro have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. In this competition Montenegro have gone W W.

The numbers. Armenia score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Armenia average 8.1 shots (2.9 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 41% of the ball. Montenegro score 1.3 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Montenegro average 13.7 shots (4.3 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Armenia have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 10 Jun 2017, it finished Armenia 1-4 Montenegro: Armenia had 14 shots to 13, 63% of the ball, two yellow cards.

The case against. Armenia's record still gives them 44% to win.

The read. Montenegro to win. An open game. Montenegro are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Montenegro. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.39, rated 84% (Armenia: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Montenegro: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Predicted score: Armenia 1-2 Montenegro (9% chance).

The agreed story. Montenegro or the draw, an open game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Armenia in their last internationals: won 2-0 v Latvia. Montenegro in their last internationals: won 2-1 v Cyprus. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Montenegro or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.54

MNE 72% of 10 · ARM 92% of 576.5%

Montenegro: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Armenia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against

Montenegro (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.77

MNE 33% of 10 · ARM 77% of 557.2%

Montenegro won 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Armenia lost 3 of 5 at home (draws left out) · both last 10: 59% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 4, refunded 0, lost 5

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES

1.34

ARM 76% of 5 · MNE 92% of 1085.5%

Armenia: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Montenegro: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

2.05

ARM 68% of 5 · MNE 64% of 1066.5%

Armenia: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Montenegro: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 64% · each game weighed by who it was against

MONTENEGRO GOALS

Montenegro Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.35

MNE 49% of 10 · ARM 92% of 571.2%

Montenegro scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Armenia conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsHELD · the odds board 68%

1.47

ARM 100% of 5 · MNE 86% of 1088.8%

Armenia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Montenegro: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Cards (the numbers (91%) and the records (69%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9%

Armenia goals →

Montenegro goals ↓

0-06%

1-06%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.7%

5-00.2%

0-18%

1-112%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-27%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-34%

1-35%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.6%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.5%

1-50.6%

2-50.4%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ARMENIAWLLLWLLLLW0.90 PPG

MONTENEGROWWWLLLLWLW1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ARMENIA HOMExMONTENEGRO AWAY

0.80SCORED A GAME1.302.90CONCEDED A GAME1.9010%CLEAN SHEETS10%2.50CORNERS A GAME5.141.38CARDS A GAME2.860.73xG1.322.57xG AGAINST2.14

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

ARMENIA 1 · 50%DRAW 0MONTENEGRO 1 · 50%

2016-11-11Armenia 3 – 2 Montenegro

2017-06-10Armenia 1 – 4 Montenegro

TRENDS

Armenia have scored in 50% of their games.

Montenegro have scored in 60% of their games.

Armenia kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Montenegro kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards